By Alan Caruba
On
December 31, the United States is slated to begin removing its troops from
Afghanistan. They have been there since shortly after 9/11 in 2001. At this
writing, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has refused to sign a security agreement
that would permit contingents of U.S. and allied troops there to train and
assist its security forces beyond the end of 2014.
Karzai
says we have different definitions for terrorists. They were and they are the
Taliban. He wants to negotiate with them. On Christmas day they attacked the
U.S. embassy in Kabul. No one was injured.
In late
December, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs,
Gen. Martin Dempsey, held a Pentagon press conference in which they asserted
that the Afghan security forces are capable of “overcoming and, in most cases,
overwhelming their Taliban competitors for control of Afghanistan," but that
they “lack confidence.” In addition, they face a political transition in their
central government, the outcome of which is unpredictable.
President
Obama deemed the Afghan conflict a good war in contrast to Iraq. Since the
withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, it has been in a state of political crisis
with constant attacks that kill Iraqis on a weekly basis. On Christmas day,
Christians were attacked three times in Baghdad, Iraq, killing at least 37.
At the heart
of the Afghan and Iraq problem is Islam, its long battle between Sunnis and
Shiites, and its enduring hatred of Christians, Jews and all other faiths.
We’re in
Afghanistan because it was an al Qaeda staging area for 9/11. Had we taken the
approach that freed Kuwait from Iraqi conquest in 1990, we would have been in
and out in short order. The U.S. led assault on Iraqi forces began in mid-January
1991 and it was over by late February.
Instead,
we remained in Afghanistan. There were 630 U.S. casualties in the years between
2001 and 2008, but following Obama’s “surge” they increased to 1,544 between 2009
and 2012. In 2013, there have been 126. The Taliban suffered casualties, but
they did not go away. Parked in Pakistan, their main support, they can and will
return. Much of Afghanistan’s problems stem from the establishment of Pakistan
in 1947.
The
National Priorities Project tracks the cost of the Afghanistan conflict,
asserting that taxpayers have paid $683,242,655, 879 (and growing) since it
began in 2001, calculating that it costs $10.45 million an hour. The Iraq war cost $816,255,519,665.
Neither
conflict produced a desired outcome and, combined with Obama’s agenda to
withdraw the U.S. from any military role in the Middle East, many Americans are
believed to have embraced a neo-isolationism whose roots reach back to the
Vietnam conflict and earlier. The reality is that most have grave doubts and
concerns about five years of failed foreign policy by the Obama administration
that has sided with Islamists.
A recent
Pew poll said that 52% believe “the U.S. should mind its own business
internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their
own.” The problem with that is the
prospect of Middle East and African nations in which al Qaeda and other
jihadists would gain control and expand their holy war on the West.
In an
analysis of Afghanistan after a U.S. withdrawal, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a
senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and an adjunct
assistant professor in Georgetown University’s security studies program, noted
recently that “Afghanistan has known some 2,600 years of foreign invasion. The
invaders did much “to shape the country’s culture, religion, politics, and
geography, and some of Afghanistan’s most critical turning points came as those
invaders left the scene.”
There is
considerable irony in what occurred when the then-Soviet Union invaded and was
eventually forced out by Afghans and jihadists like Osama bin Laden who
received considerable aid from the U.S. to drive out its army in 1989. This was
followed by its collapse in 1991 and Afghanistan did as well, “into anarchy and
civil war.”
Several
scenarios were offered by Gartenstein-Ross, but given Afghanistan’s history few
hold out much hope for a strong centralized government. As the Taliban say, the
U.S. military wears watches while they measure time in decades and centuries.
My own
best guess is that the Taliban conflict in Afghanistan will expand. Whether an
Afghan army, still in its earliest years, can protect a central government is
anyone’s guess.
When
jihadists are emboldened enough to try to overthrow the Assad regime in Syria
and as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states join together to prepare for or deter a
possible conflict with a nuclear-armed Iran, the Middle East holds the promise
of a very ugly future. The implications for the U.S. can only be ignored at our
peril.
Editor’s
Note: An extraordinary book on our fighting forces in Afghanistan, a tribute to
their courage and dedication, is “Afghanistan on the Bounce” by Robert L.
Cunningham, a noted photographer of Presidents and heads of state who was
embedded with our troops there, photographing all aspects of their lives. If
you served there, know someone who did, or are a veteran, this is worth adding
to your library.
© Alan
Caruba, 2013
Once again a foreign war for America ends in a military withdrawal in good order after winning all the battles
ReplyDelete... and in a political defeat.
Ditto Iraq War II...
Ditto Vietnam War...
The lesson here is that when it becomes necessary to attack a hostile third world country jump in with both feet to include tactical nukes, cause maximum destruction and mega deaths, turn the country into a howling wilderness and get the hell out of Dodge.
...and "out" means OUT! No "Marshal Plan" to rebuild their disease ridden sewers of countries... no doctors, no food, no "I'm sorry!"
The Islamic people in the Middle East and Asia will never love or respect the United States...but we sure as hell can make them fear the wrath of the Eagle.
Sorry, Ron, but I disagree with the destroy and leave approach. Destroy enough to bring about surrender, but war must have an outcome that builds peace. We did that after WWII in both Germany and Japan. It worked.
ReplyDeleteAt the risk of sounding too harsh; kill em all and let Allah sort em out...
ReplyDeleteI am sorry to disagree with you alan
ReplyDeletethe only thing Islam understands is
when it is beaten if you want world
peace destroy Islam it is Evil.
The difference in definitions is easily explained. We define terrorists as anyone trying to kill us or other innocent people. He defines terrorist as someone trying to kill HIM.
ReplyDelete