Thursday, October 9, 2008

Cold and Colder

By Alan Caruba

Joe Bastardi, the Chief Long-Range Forecaster at AccuWeather, has released his 2008-09 Winter Season Forecast addressing issues of average temperature and precipitation that will impact the nation.

His forecast calls for one of the coldest winters in several years across much of the Eastern portion of the United States, the population-dense third of the nation. The northern Rockies and Northwest is predicted to have more snow than normal, though not as much as last year when the snow pack reached twice normal levels. In the East, however, he anticipates a lot more snowfall than last year.

AccuWeather employs 113 meteorologists to provide forecasts and severe weather bulletins to more than 110 million Americans every day via the Internet, mobile devices, and other media. Chances are, if you are checking the weather on CNN, ABC stations, the Washington Post or The New York Times, you are getting an AccuWeather report.

The snowier winter is predicted to begin in December and is likely to generate blizzards in late January and into February.

This forecast has all kinds of implications for the economy. Those in the East will no doubt see their heating bills soar. Blizzards impact the delivery of all kinds of goods because most are transported via truck around the nation. Severe storms can close down schools and affect other public services. Icy roads predictably lead to more auto accidents and deaths.

Thomas Jefferson, our third President, was very interested in the weather, but at that time the nation’s economy was largely agricultural and weather played a major role in the success of crops. The early years of the nation’s history occurred during a Little Ice Age that affected not only the U.S. but much of Europe. Dating back to around 1300, it did not begin to end until around 1850.

The warming that occurred thereafter was entirely natural and had nothing to do with the phony “global warming” that has afflicted public policy since the 1980s and is responsible for the waste of billions of taxpayers’ dollars thrown at the study of a non-existent problem. It continues to distract us from reality, intruding into the presidential debates and campaigns as both candidates inaccurately or deliberately exploit pure nonsense about carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.

A nation suffering a financial crisis can ill afford to indulge in idiotic “cap-and-trade” programs involving millions of dollars thrown at bogus “carbon credits”, but I can assure you that this is occurring even as I write.

There are a lot of good reasons to pay attention to Bastardi’s forecast which, by the way, is comparable to the Farmer’s Almanac forecast predicting the same thing. For one, this would be a good time to make sure you have some good cold weather outerwear in the closet and, if you don’t, to buy some.

I have a friend who lives in a cabin in rural Missouri and you can bet he is laying in a supply of firewood in case his new electric housewarming device for himself and his companion dogs gets disabled by downed lines in a big snowstorm.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that “global warming” does not cause cold weather, although it has and will surely be blamed again for this, as well as for hurricanes and every other form of weather. There never was any unnatural “global warming” and we are most certainly into a new cycle of cooling on planet Earth. It’s been occurring since around 1998.

The question on my mind and others who take an interest in climate cycles is whether or not we are actually at the beginning of another major ice age? They occur every 11,500 years and we are at the end of the most recent interglacial cycle between ice ages. It’s going to be a cold winter in the United States and elsewhere around the world. My guess is that this is just the beginning of a very long period of cold.


J.M. DosLobos said...

There are a few of us in this country and, I expect, the world who have been aware of or have had an expectation of a new glacial period — perhaps a little ice age,but that's a hope — coming sometime. I became so aware in the (latish) 1940s. But with things like schools and colleges and armies, I didn't begin thinking about it too much until perhaps forty years ago, and then remember my very youthful research and the geology I was compelled to study in college. I its unfortunate than a major cooling period should be such unfortunate thing to think about, but I am deeply afraid that we must, to the extent of learning what things we need to acquire and others we need to stockpile. My first encounter with Not by Fire But by Ice was a delight (quite spooky of course) because Felix's commentary agreed so closely with my long-held beliefs. I am not a scientist, although I have worked a little as a geologist, but I can read and watch weather, and I — like a to me amazing number of others — have long anticipated a new global (very) cold period, perhaps a new glacial age. We already live in an ice age or we would be cinders.

J.M. DosLobos

Alan Caruba said...

If you liked Robert Felix's first book, make a note to visit and order his new one. I saw an advance copy and it is extraordinary.