Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Cassandra Says It Will Get Very Cold


By Alan Caruba

In the Greek myth about Cassandra, she could foresee the future, but no one believed her warnings. Her name is believed to be derived from the words for beauty and the sun.

Any number of solar scientists and others are warning that the Earth is on the brink of a new Ice Age at worst, a mini ice age at best. Dr. Achim Brauer of the German Research Center for Geosciences in Potsdam has concluded that the next Ice Age will come on so swiftly that in barely a year much of the northern hemisphere will be incased in ice and snow.

The Little Ice Age from around 1300 to 1850 lasted long enough to transform European society and have a profound affect on the histories of America and France. In England, they went from growing grapes to skating on a completely frozen Thames.

All the signs are in place and throughout the northern hemisphere nations, their leaders prattle on about global warming, clean energy, endangered species, and all the other environmental foolishness without once casting an eye toward the source of all climate on Earth, the Sun!

While the warmists were trying to stir up hysteria over an Earth whose temperature was suppose to rise dramatically, Nature had other plans. For the past decade the magnetic field that triggers sunspots, magnetic storms on the face of the Sun, has been steadily declining and, with it, so has the overall temperature of planet Earth.

No matter what august figure blathers about climate change these days, they are either an ignorant fool or a charlatan seeking to enrich himself by one scheme or another. The situation for the warmists has become so dire that even the science advisor to the President, Dr. John Holdren, wants to change the terminology of global warming to “global climate disruption”, admitting the former is “a dangerous misnomer.”

It’s worse than that. It is a huge fraud, a hoax, a crime intended to deceive millions.

Okay, let’s all forget the millions of words and millions of dollars spent to convince us that “global warming” was such a sure thing that any scientist or reasonably intelligent person disputing it was labeled a denier, but the truth was that the data generated by the computer models to justify the claim was rigged!

My friend, Robert Felix, author of “Not by Fire, but by Ice”, and editor of IceAgeNow.com, probably knows more about ice ages than anyone on the planet. In his book, he says “Ice ages begin and end abruptly every 11,500 years.” Guess what? We are now 11,500 years since the last Ice Age ended!

While idiots run about claiming that humans actually have any affect whatever on the climate and thus the fate of the Earth, Felix reminds us that “the Earth is a violent and dangerous place to live. We’re beginning to realize that mass extinctions have been the rule, rather than the exception, for the 3.5 billion years that life has existed on this planet.”

On June 14 in an article published in the New Scientist by Stuart Clark, he raised the question of why and where the sunspots of gone. Noting that they ebb and flow in cycles lasting about eleven years, Stuart said, “But for the last two years, the sunspots have mostly been missing. Their absence, the most prolonged in nearly 100 years, has taken even seasoned sun watchers by surprise.”

Not everyone, though. Felix believes we are on the cusp of the next Ice Age and, frankly, so do I. “This is not the calm before the storm,” says Felix. “This is the storm.”

If we’re lucky, it may just be a new Little Ice Age, but it could be a new Ice Age and, if that’s the case, a lot of life on planet Earth is going to be severely disrupted for a very long, long time.

Even a brief ice age of several hundred years will increase the demand for the generation of energy to keep us warm. All of a sudden everyone including the environmentalist liars will be crying out for more coal, more oil, and more natural gas.

Cassandra is saying bundle up!

© Alan Caruba, 2010

19 comments:

TexasFred said...

Might be a really great time to invest in some energy stocks...

Supply and demand keeps the price of gas, oil, electric and other utilities high now, imagine an ice age and the panic of not enough fuel to keep warm...

There's a silver lining behind this cloud I believe...

Edward said...

If you want to demonstrate how the environmental movement can make a lot of hay out of nothing, have a look at the entire "ozone hole" issue.

The "ozone hole" was discovered in 1956 (before CFCs entered widespread use) and was explained as a seasonal weather phenomenon. The magnitude of the annual variation has not changed significantly since then, yet we are told that the "ozone hole" is caused by human CFC emissions.

As you know, the environmental movement was successful in banning CFCs.

Guy said...

The ozone hole, electromagnetic radiation, acid rain, global warming, climate change ... I can't even remember them all. If it isn't one thing, it's another. I've seen enough of these hysterical theories in my life time to know a scam when I see one. They'd almost be funny if they weren't doing so much damage to our businesses and our economy.

Guy said...

I'd LOVE to see a mini-ice age put this hysteria to rest once and for all. I'm afraid there would be a lot of suffering though ... And yes, energy stocks would be a good investment, but buying real estate in the equatorial regions would be better! You could kill two birds with one stone ... stay warm and get rich at the same time ....

Ronbo said...

I agree that we are headed towards a New Ice Age and a major crisis that may see the death of billions of people and perhaps the end of civilization as we know it. The objective data is there for all to see. Yet only a minority of reason based Cassandras can see the truth.

In contrast, the mystics of Environmentalism have convinced the majority of people on earth to believe with religious faith in the Big Lie of Man Made Global Warming.

As Ibsen once said, "The majority is always wrong."

Alan Rahn said...

Not to pick nits or anything, but for the last million years of the Pleistocene, ice ages have lasted approximately 100,000 years (not 13,000 years as you stated), with 10,000 year interglacial periods between them. We are at or near the end of our present interglacial (the Holocene), and the gradual cooling trend back down to ice age conditions has already begun.

The warming up period from ice age to interglacial is very fast (a few hundred years). The cooling back down to ice age from interglacial is slow and gradual (several thousand years). No need to panic since there is plenty of time to adapt, just as there is also no need to worry about dying in fiery floods from increased levels of CO2.

Alan Caruba said...

@Alan (nice name!)
You're right. The last Ice Age lasted easily 100,000 and the statement it lasted 13,000 is wrong. It was a misinterpretation of something I read while preparing the commentary. I have deleted it from the post.

Oddly, a number of scientists I know missed that. Glad you spotted it.

I disagree, however, that the next Ice Age will take its time arriving. All the data I have is that will come on very rapidly.

Northerntruthseeker said...

Great Article! Have you checked out the great video called " The Cloud Mystery" available on Youtube? It contains true scientific investigation into the linkage between the diminishing Sun's magnetic field output and the result of having more cosmic rays bombard Earth's atmosphere, generating more cloud cover over the planet, and causing the planet to COOL! The findings of those scientists in that great video are extraordinary and very compelling...

I myself have been on board with the fact that Global Warming is a fraud, a hoax, and a sham, from the beginning. The facts and evidence shows that the Sun's energy output is down and continuing to fall as part of its natural cycles. That diminished output will definitely generate at least a new Little Ice Age, and at worst, as you state, another Ice Age!

Tony Austin said...

Wow, I live in the San Fernando Valley in California. During the last ice age, it is believed that redwoods on the surrounding mountains existed where now only chaparral exists.

I hate to say this but global cooling would really raise my standard of living and those that live along the Nile as well.

Oh well, people in Canada, Europe and New York will just have to move to LA.

sentient said...

The end Holocene. What will it look like? There is quite the little tempest in a teapot going on in the paleoclimatology world about this. The most reasonable period to look at is the 800kyrs or so since the Mid Pleistocene Transition (MPT), for that is when we switched from the 41kyr major climate cyclicity (which matches obliquity) to the 100kyr one (which matches the eccentricity in our orbit) we have been in since that time. Of course, it’s more complex than that, but we could get lost in the weeds ferreting out all the nuances there. But the gist of it is that the switches between earth's cold and warm endpoints happen these days on a roughly 100kyr cycle, or about ~90kyrs or so ice age, and roughly 9-12kyr interglacials. But again, it just isn’t that simple. Five of the last six interglacials have each lasted about half a precessional cycle, which itself varies between 19-23kyrs. We are at the 23kyr point now in precession so half is 11,500 years, the present age of the Holocene (or Marine Isotope Stage 1 [MIS-1]), the interglacial in which all of human civilization has occurred.

But what about that 6th interglacial, the one that didn't last half of a precessional cycle? That would be MIS-11, or the Holsteinian interglacial. It seems to have lasted between 28-30kyrs long, or 1.5 to 2 precessional cycles. That was about 400kyrs ago, or halfway back to the MPT. Eccentricity cycles have yet another cyclicity which varies on a 400kyr timeframe. MIS-11 occurred during the last eccentricity minima, which means we are at an eccentricity minima once again. But does being at an ecc. min. mean an extended interglacial?

Not necessarily. MIS-19, which occurred at the MPT only lasted about 10kyrs and it too occurred during an ecc. min. In providing a wealth of data in a landmark paper published in 2004 from 57 globally dispersed deep oceanic drilling program cores, Lisiecki and Raymo (Oceanography, 2004) stated:

"Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA community members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with 18O values below 3.6h for 20 kyr, from 398-418 ka. In omparison,
stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6h for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398-418 ka as from 250-650 ka; consequently,
stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the June 21 insolation minimum at 65N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values
are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a 'double precession-cycle' interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence."

In perhaps one of the most cogent analyses of "when" we might be now, Chronis Tzedakis (2010), writing in the European Geosciences Union free online publication process (without question the most open, collaborative peer-review process I have yet seen) Climate of the Past Discussions

http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/5/1337/2009/cpd-5-1337-2009-discussion.html

This is post 1 of 3.

sentient said...

The end Holocene. What will it look like? There is quite the little tempest in a teapot going on in the paleoclimatology world about this. The most reasonable period to look at is the 800kyrs or so since the Mid Pleistocene Transition (MPT), for that is when we switched from the 41kyr major climate cyclicity (which matches obliquity) to the 100kyr one (which matches the eccentricity in our orbit) we have been in since that time. Of course, it’s more complex than that, but we could get lost in the weeds ferreting out all the nuances there. But the gist of it is that the switches between earth's cold and warm endpoints happen these days on a roughly 100kyr cycle, or about ~90kyrs or so ice age, and roughly 9-12kyr interglacials. But again, it just isn’t that simple. Five of the last six interglacials have each lasted about half a precessional cycle, which itself varies between 19-23kyrs. We are at the 23kyr point now in precession so half is 11,500 years, the present age of the Holocene (or Marine Isotope Stage 1 [MIS-1]), the interglacial in which all of human civilization has occurred.

But what about that 6th interglacial, the one that didn't last half of a precessional cycle? That would be MIS-11, or the Holsteinian interglacial. It seems to have lasted between 28-30kyrs long, or 1.5 to 2 precessional cycles. That was about 400kyrs ago, or halfway back to the MPT. Eccentricity cycles have yet another cyclicity which varies on a 400kyr timeframe. MIS-11 occurred during the last eccentricity minima, which means we are at an eccentricity minima once again. But does being at an ecc. min. mean an extended interglacial?

Not necessarily. MIS-19, which occurred at the MPT only lasted about 10kyrs and it too occurred during an ecc. min. In providing a wealth of data in a landmark paper published in 2004 from 57 globally dispersed deep oceanic drilling program cores, Lisiecki and Raymo (Oceanography, 2004) stated:

"Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA community members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with 18O values below 3.6h for 20 kyr, from 398-418 ka. In omparison,
stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6h for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398-418 ka as from 250-650 ka; consequently,
stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the June 21 insolation minimum at 65N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values
are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a 'double precession-cycle' interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence."

In perhaps one of the most cogent analyses of "when" we might be now, Chronis Tzedakis (2010), writing in the European Geosciences Union free online publication process (without question the most open, collaborative peer-review process I have yet seen) Climate of the Past Discussions:

Oops! Surprise, surprise, Google cannot process a URL beyond a certain length! So you will just have to search this out for yourself. What a joke!

This is post 1 of 3.

sentient said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Natalie Martin said...

I can't believe people are actually agreeing with you. Some of your claims are pulled right out of somebody's ass. You have no data in here, just talk. And even if there isn't any global warming, god forbid if we make the planet better "for nothing".

Alan Caruba said...

Natalie, ignorance is not bliss.

Feel free to ignore what I wrote, but it is based on the views of leading solar scientists and others who know a lot more about such things than you.

sentient said...

post 2 of 3
(I apologize for the multiple postings. The Blogger/Google thing is quite bizarre)


I have directed you to the interactive discussion page of this interesting process whereby Tzedakis' first EGU peer-reviewed 2009 publication of his work then underwent an online peer-review process being republished this last March as the 2010 edition (click on the Final Revised Paper link and download your own copy).

About as open as I have seen it get yet. So, back in the 1990's, Ruddiman began publishing research on what has become to be known as "the early anthropogenic hypothesis", or that during the early part of the Holocene, our interglacial, mankind, through cultivation and land use changes, began to interfere with climate, perhaps extending the duration we are experiencing today. This is more important than you may know, but for a reason which may yet elude you (that very uneasy, common ground for deniers and warmists I will get to in a moment).

Working through a truly stunning recitation of multi-faceted works examining the MIS-19, MIS-11, MIS-1 eccentricity minima in extraordinary detail, in March of this year his concluding remarks are:

"On balance, what emerges is that projections on the natural duration of the current interglacial depend on the choice of analogue, while corroboration or refutation of the “early anthropogenic hypothesis” on the basis of comparisons with earlier interglacials remains irritatingly inconclusive"

Meaning we may or may not be on the cusp of the next ice age.

Which leads us directly to that very uneasy common ground shared by deniers and warmists. Assume for the purposes of discussion that the warmists are right, and that GHGs are the heathen devil gases they say they are. The answer to this debate might very well be in the paleoclimate record, but we must look a little closer to see it.

Ice tends to get quite unstable at about 4 km (about 2.5 miles) thickness. Antarctica is virtually a desert receiving mere inches of snowfall on yearly average, whereas Greenland receives tens of feet. So the ice core records from the deepest holes, such as the EPICA Dome Concordia bores, can get us back something like 650kyrs (some research says 800kyrs), but at fairly poor resolution, whereas Greenland cores get us back only some 125kyrs or so, but at much higher resolution.

The far more robust ice core data over the last 125kyrs from Greenland records 24 abrupt warming events during the Wisconsin ice age. Remember the difference between earth's post-MPT ice age and interglacial states of 20C? Well these 24 events, termed Dansgaard-Oeshger (D-O) oscillations ( averaged an 8-10C rise (D-O-19 scored a 16C rise!), each of which occurred from between a few years to mere decades! The average duration (from abrupt warming to relaxation back to the glacial state) is 1,500 years, the range is 1,000-4000 years.

sentient said...

Possibly last post:

Perhaps more importantly Sole, Turiel and Llebot writing in Physics Letters A (366 [2007] 184–189) identified three classes of D-O oscillations in the Greenland GISP2 ice cores A (brief), B (medium) and C (long), reflecting the speed at which the warming relaxes back to the cold glacial state:

“In this work ice-core CO2 time evolution in the period going from 20 to 60 kyr BP [15] has been qualitatively compared to our temperature cycles, according to the class they belong to. It can be observed in Fig. 6 that class A cycles are completely unrelated to changes in CO2 concentration. We have observed some correlation between B and C cycles and CO2 concentration, but of the opposite sign to the one expected: maxima in atmospheric CO2 concentration tend to correspond to the middle part or the end the cooling period. The role of CO2 in the oscillation phenomena seems to be more related to extend the duration of the cooling phase than to trigger warming. This could explain why cycles not coincident in time with maxima of CO2 (A cycles) rapidly decay back to the cold state."

It isn't that CO2 causes the warmings, it seems it ameliorates the relaxation back to the glacial state.

Which brings us directly to the precautionary principle. In acceding that predicting the future is a highly risky business, we find ourselves at what could very likely be close to the end of the third eccentricity minima interglacial since the MPT. Of the two which preceded it, one lasted the common half precession cycle age, and one didn't. And the end of this one not written yet into the record.

Knowing that CO2 does not cause the warmings, but functions to ameliorate the drop back to the cold glacial state, and knowing that by what may have been blind stupid luck we started releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere at rapid rates baginning about 150 or so years ago, and accelerating 50 years ago, applying the precautionary principle, what would you do if it was all up to you?

Meanwhile, enjoy the interglacial!

While it lasts………………

sentient said...

Opening paragraph from the National Academy of Sciences 2003 publication "Abrupt Climate Change - Inevitable Surprises"

"Recent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was accompanied by significant climatic changes across most of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age climate jumps. Severe droughts and other regional climate events during the current warm period have shown similar tendencies of abrupt onset and great persistence, often with adverse effects on societies."

So, the warmings can occur, naturally, with startling speed!

sentient said...

On cooling and warming from page Chapter 2, page 27:

(you have to purchase this from the National Academies Press)

"Briefly, the data indicate that cooling into the Younger Dryas occurred in a few prominent decade(s)-long steps, whereas warming at the end of it occurred primarily in one especially large step (Figure 1.2) of about 8°C in
about 10 years and was accompanied by a doubling of snow accumulation
in 3 years; most of the accumulation-rate change occurred in 1 year. (This matches well the change in wind-driven upwelling in the Cariaco Basin, offshore Venezuela, which occurred in 10 years or less [Hughen et al.,
1996].)"

So. Natural climate disruption can accur with dazzling speed. And not only chaotically, but fairly frequently. This is what establishes the background "noise" from which you must discern an anomalous (2 times greater at least) to be recognizable as an anthropogenic "signal".

Alan Caruba said...

@Sentient:
Too many comments on a single topic become a blog in themselves.

Therefore, please accept my thanks, but your further comments will not be posted regarding this topic.