Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Why it's Too Darn Hot

By Alan Caruba

Having written for a decade that the Earth has been cooling, it was rather disconcerting to receive a news release from Accuweather reporting that “The year 2010 is on track to become the hottest year on record since modern record keeping began, according to climate researchers at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).”

It turns out there is an explanation for the unusual levels of heat from Russia to Pakistan to Japan. It is a meteorological phenomenon called “blocking events” and they are related to the jet stream.

An August 10 article by Michael Moore in New Scientist explained, “According to meteorologists monitoring the atmosphere above the northern hemisphere, unusual holding patterns in the jet stream are to blame. As a result, weather systems sat still. Temperatures rocketed and rainfall reached extremes.”

The public has been buffeted for decades as the global warming fraud produced reams of reports that the Earth was heating dramatically. It wasn’t. In November 2009, the “Climategate” scandal broke, revealing that the data put forth by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was rigged, false, a scam.

A handful of rogue climatologists working together from East Anglia, England, to Penn State University provided deliberately false information. At the time their private emails were leaked they were seriously worried because a natural cooling cycle had begun in the late 1990s.

Thus, while news of 2010 being potentially one of the hottest years since 1880 seems to give new life to the discredited global warming claims, it doesn’t.

The New Scientist article further explained that, “Renowned for its influence on European and Asian weather, the jet stream flows between 7 and 12 kilometers above ground. In its basic form it is a current of fast-moving air that bobs north and south as it rushes around the globe from west to east.”

Climatologist, Dr. Tim Ball, took note, writing on August 16 that, “Finally, a weather person has mentioned the word ‘blocking’ when talking about the heat and fires in Moscow. It’s a natural event as the world shifts from the warming trend of the 1990s to a cooling trend since 2000.”

The IPCC assaults on valid and verifiable measurements of the Earth’s actual climate were difficult for people with no knowledge of meteorology to debunk, but NOAA has been engaged in similar chicanery. Its report, “State of the Earth’s Climate 2009”, prepared under the direction of the U.S. National Climate Data Center, was equally flawed and deceptive.

Unreported in both the IPCC and NOAA reports is the fact that countless faulty weather stations, often placed near heat sources, and malfunctioning weather satellites make it virtually impossible to make any kind of accurate evaluation of short or long term climate trends.

Moreover, whether the Earth is warming or cooling, all manner of unusual weather events always occur. They are, in themselves, literally meaningless when it comes to forecasting trends.

That is why, in the midst of a new and natural cooling cycle based on reduced solar sunspot activity, we are having a very warm summer and possibly even a very warm year thanks to a jet stream experiencing “blocking events.”

We all need to get passed the notion that humans have anything to do with the weather. It is too vast, too chaotic, and too unpredictable to rationally suggest that a little bit of carbon dioxide is driving the whole thing. It has virtually nothing to do with the climate whereas the Sun has everything to do with it.

There are rumors that the Senate will attempt to take up yet another version of the Cap-and-Trade bill passed in the House during a lame duck session. Based on the bogus global warming, it is a total fraud, a scheme to sell “carbon credits” and make a few people rich while the rest of us are fleeced by rising energy costs. If it passes, those that vote for it will truly be traitors because they will have doomed any economic recovery. It is a nation-killer.

© Alan Caruba, 2010


TexasFred said...

I don't know much about science, but I do know this, it's August in Texas, and it's hot, it's supposed to be HOT, it is, after all, Texas and August...

But, it's not nearly as hot as it was last summer...

And last winter we had a damned BLIZZARD right here in North Texas... I know you *northern folks* don't call 10 inches a blizzard but here in Texas, 2 inches of snow wreaks havoc.

It's called weather, it's Mother Nature at her finest, and sometimes she is a PMSing b*tch...

Alan Caruba said...

Fred: You're like some meteorological genius-person. Who knew it got hot in Texas in August? And that it snows there? It's hard to believe that people actually live there year-round.

I'm guessing you're not buying that "blocking" thing with the jet stream. But it sure sounds good, doesn't it?

Ronbo said...

It's hot in Salt Lake City - In the 90s! And not a drop rain. I bet this has nothing to do with the fact we live in a desert.

I bet it's that darn Global Warming again!

Last winter we had record snow in the mountains and lots of rain in the valley.

This could only be Global Warming. Everyone knows it never snows or rains in the desert.

Some oldtimers say it's just typical weather for this part of Utah - but what do they know? I bet they just don't want to give their trucks and SUVs :-)

Alan Caruba said...

Hot in the desert? Who knew?

LarryOldtimer said...

Alan, in 1953-1954 I was a pre-engineering student at a fine college in Iowa. Had the best professors that ever got chalk on their coats. Learned well the fundamentals of chemistry. 20 academic units my first semester. Chemistry was 3 lectures and 2 labs each week. We students learned well what is called "scientific method".

After my 4 years of active duty in the USAF, in intelligence, I changed my major to physics. Once again, fine professors who would fail a non-comprehending student at the drop of a blackboard eraser.

Scientific method was once again drummed into us.

One thing we students were strongly warned about was never to extrapolate from 2 points on a curve. Never, never.

All of this "trend" nonsense is extrapolating from 2 points on a curve, no matter the data manipulations used, and is as anti-scientific method as could possibly be.

I am appalled at the lack of knowledge of fundamentals of both chemistry and physics these modern people with PhDs have.

I am appalled at the lack of knowledge of scientific method they demonstrate.

Might as well consult an oracle, or analyize the entrails of chickens. Tarot deck, anyone?

The future has never been predictable, and never will be. Weather forecasts can not be depended on for even an hour ahead of time in many instances.

As you say, the most improbable of events occur on a regular basis, including weather events.

The dress of these charlatans should be black robes and black pointed wide brimmed hats with metallic images of the moon and stars affixed, and instead of computers, crystal balls, which would be every bit as accurate in forcasting long term "trends" of weather or temperture.

President Eisenhower warned, in his farewell address:

Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades.

In this revolution, research has become central, it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.

Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.

Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite. The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.

What "Ike" warned us about has come to pass.

TexasFred said...

I don't know Alan, it's 83° here today, just N.E. of Dallas, and we have rain in the area...

All these weather people put together are nothing more than speculative prognosticators...

The computer model says this, that and the other, and it's still a 50-50 guess...

I'm thinking that by the middle of September we're going to see cooler days and nights here in Texas, and by January, it's going to be cold... Just thinking out loud...

Alan Caruba said...

@Larry: I sometimes wonder if a PhD is worth anything any more. There are an awful lot of educated fools and charlatons out there.

@Fred: I will put my money on your prognostications. It's gets cold around here, too, in the winter.

Ol James said...

My thermometer hasn't been below 100 but a few times, (late at night and rainy days, which have been few).
I feel for you Fred. Used to live just North of Houston.
But here in Dixie we got HUMIDITY!! Most days 70+%.
I got a rock outside my front porch. I can see it when I open the front door every morning as the sun rises.
If it's wet- usually dew or rain.
If it's frosty- cool
if it's gone- Tornado!!!

It's more accurate that any models a computer can conjure at a weather department from the news.

petkov said...

so let me get this straight. Cooling produces warmer weather. Yes I get it now. Thank you for explaining it to me. Do you know 40.000 to 55.000 people died in Europe in the heat waves of 2003?
So this cooling trend that began in the 2000s has been producing this warming trend since 2003 then you are saying? Wow man, you are a genius.
let's say it is cooling, ok. lets say its gonna get really cold. lets say ice age is coming and the globalw arming is NOT happening.
Guess what? Cooling will be worse for humanity. Means millions will die of hunger. Any small change will severally affect us because we got 5.7 billion people to feed.
And gues what Russia had a drastic drop in grain production. so the chnage is already underway.
So you keep on writing your articles denying Global Warming. When the price of food jumps dramatically in the next decade i hope you will have enough money for food. Will you still be wasting time writing articles or wondering how much food you will have to eat.

Alan Caruba said...

Petkov: Go over to www.iceagenow.com and check out the incidents of cool weather these days.

There is the "weather" that is happening and then there is the "climate" that is measured in decades and centuries. And, yes, the climate is cooling.