Saturday, March 15, 2008

Predictions for the Hell of It

By Alan Caruba

Everybody makes predictions. They’re fun. Or they’re scary. They are based on fact or fantasy. I usually avoid making them, but every so often I just can’t resist. Here are a few.

1. John McCain will be elected to be the next President. It won’t even be close.

2. The Democrat Party convention will take the nomination from Barack Obama and hand it to Hillary Clinton via the super-delegates, almost all of whom will have concluded that a Black man cannot win and that Hillary is the “brand” in which the party is too heavily invested at this point to abandon. (Bill Clinton is the only Democrat to have been elected President since Jimmy Carter.)

3. By this time next year experts on solar radiation and the continued global cooling trend will bury the global warming hoax under a lot of snow. More people will learn that solar activity, i.e., radiation, has stayed flat for yet another year.

4. At least one major daily newspaper will fold as a print operation and try to continue exclusively on the Internet.

5. A major shortfall in domestic wheat and flour, due primarily to increased exports, will send prices of all bakery products soaring by this time next year. The cost of meat and poultry will continue to rise as well due to a growing ethanol debacle.

6. Oil will reach $120.00 per barrel and the price of an ounce of gold will reach $1,250.00 by the end of the year.

7. American cities and towns will begin to experience rolling brownouts and blackouts due to insufficient electricity generation capacity in five years or less. The problem will first occur in the summer months.

8. The current Recession will be a slow process (thanks to the strength of exports) and take a longer time than usual for a turnaround and recovery. Expect it to continue through 2009.

9. The Al Qaeda of 2001 will, by 2010, have been for all intents and purposes destroyed, existing only as spin-off, self-declared terror cells using the name.

10. It will be revealed that Osama bin Laden was given sanctuary in Iran and has been there for several years.


Unknown said...

Whats your prediction about the "North American Union"? One of my friends, a dutch man, said that before the EU took shape 99% of europeans were against it.

Congress can not or will not build a fence with Mexico. It seems our leaders as with Europes leaders are die hard towards selling out there countries and citizens.

Whats your predictions about the NAU because its seems a sure thing? Logically north america should fall in as US states with more state soverenty, and one currency. Some how I doubt they will do that.

Alan Caruba said...

Once Bush leaves office the NAU will lose ground. I seriously doubt that either Americans or Canadians would allow this plan to become law.

After the last century's warfare, old Europe, protected by American military strength, just wants the EU to exist to avoid any more wars. Its proposed constitution has been rejected and will likely continue to be.

Aidan said...

Unfortunately those of us living in (once)Great Britain were denied a referendum by the incumbent thieves despite a referendum being part of Labour's election manifesto. And despite the French and Dutch rejection of the constitution, I think it will come into being because the EU 'meddlecrats' will simply bypass their subjects' wishes and pass it into law as that's what the EU does.

Chief said...

My IRA lost over 10% in the last 3 months. More to come? Can't say.

I may move all "bouncing money" to cash until the main collapse of the housing "scam" is done with.

I really don't want to pull out the money, however, if this is the beginning of a major devaluation, then the money would simply go away with the devaluation of the mutual funds.

I would much rather have the cash nearby than having to watch the cash get sucked into the great abyss. I think I just made up my mind....

Jeremy Jacobs said...


Nice to see your attracting some more traffic.

Keep up the good work.

Prediction - Citibank defaults!

Eliot Spitzer says sorry!

Charles N. Steele said...

Some quibbles:

You've underestimated the problem of soaring grain prices, unfortunately.

Bernanke is working hard to make the recession worse than you predict.

And Bin Laden probably isn't in Iran; they'd just as soon shoot him as shelter him. He's in some Sunni stronghold, like Pakistan, or Saudi Arabia, or U.K.

But otherwise you seem to be largely on target.

Alan Caruba said...

Don't panic! What goes down will go up. This is true of all financial cycles. The Federal Reserve has embarked on the astonishing policy of bailing out companies like Bear Sterns and whoever else may be faltering.

And welcome to our visitors from the UK. I keep an eye on events there because I fear that what happens to you can or will happen to us. (Jeremy, you are having too much fun these days! I'm jealous.)

Charles, bin Laden is definetely not in Saudi Arabia. They took away his passport and citizenship a long time ago. He threatens the royal family and they would chop off his head if they could get their hands on him.