Thursday, November 8, 2012

All the Wrong Assumptions

By Alan Caruba
“I see this election of Obama as an ugly puss-filled boil and it has to get to a painful point where it will be lanced so it can heal.”
This quote pretty much represents the feelings of millions of Republicans and conservatives, and of the many people who have written to me these past three days. Depression is both an emotional and economic term and it is the prevailing mood among those of us still astonished—shocked—by the reelection of President Obama.
With 20-20 hindsight, it is clear that a lot of us, including myself, made a lot of wrong assumptions about the perceptions of Obama that were held by various demographic elements of the population. He did well among Hispanics and, of course, among Blacks. He did well among single women.
One bright piece of news is that among younger voters, 18 to 29, the President saw the highest defection rate from his margin of support in 2008, a six percentage point decrease. That may be an indication of how the 2014 midterm elections will go. By then, it is likely a lot of Obama voters will conclude they were fooled again. Mostly, though, Obama did well enough among those who voted for him in 2008 to retain his job for four more years.

In the end, his "majority" win was by a mere 2% in a sharply divided nation.
My assumptions that an unemployment rate of eight percent, the increase of six trillion dollars to an insane national debt now two trillion in access of the annual Gross Domestic Product, the rejection of Obamacare that gave rise to the Tea Party movement, his war on energy, and a host of other factors for removing him from office were wrong.
Most certainly the scions of the Republican Party woke up with a terrific headache as the result of their wrong assumptions. In 2008 Republicans selected a former war hero, John McCain, who had a record of seeking compromise with Democrats in the Senate. He was overwhelmed by the massive mainstream media adoration of Obama. This time around, Republicans selected Mitt Romney, a man of character and one with all the right credentials to set the economy on a path to recovery. He waged a cautious campaign and, in hindsight, one that was too cautious, too polite.
The Republican Party, however, missed the message of the nation’s changing demographics. When I was growing up in the 40s and 50s, the GOP was largely seen as a party of the wealthy. They were the members of country clubs and, as a new generation of seriously conservative leaders took over, their one spectacular victory was Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. Reagan possessed solid conservative views and restored the economy after inheriting the failures of Jimmy Carter.
For reasons I never understood, voters switched course and gave Bill Clinton two terms, the second of which saw him impeached, but not removed from office. Clinton, however, knew how to compromise. After asserting conservative values, the 1994 elections gave Republicans control of the Congress. Clinton, however, participated in welfare reform and other programs, later taking credit for them. By his second term, I could not bear to see or hear him. The Lewinski affair was a stain on his presidency and nobody seemed to care.
George W. Bush might have been a reliable Republican President, focusing on the economy and other conservative issues, but his two terms were transformed by 9/11 and resulted in two wars; one in Afghanistan which should have been short, and one in Iraq that, in retrospect, was ill advised. Americans grew weary of war and that opened the door for Barack Obama.
Republicans and conservatives, including myself, made the assumption that the many failures of Obama’s first term were self-evident. His focus on passing Obamacare and the politically brutal way it was imposed by a Democrat-controlled Congress that didn’t even read the bill seemed to cry out for a defeat in 2012.

The scandal of “Fast and Furious” in which guns were allowed to cross the border for use by Mexican drug cartels was, I thought, surely going to offend Mexican-Americans and other Hispanics. It didn’t. It was largely ignored by the mainstream media and covered up by a claim of executive privilege that went unchallenged.
His failure to accept the recommendations of the Simpson-Bowles Commission on the means to avoid further debt was yet another reason I thought people would realize that he wasn’t merely indifferent to the rising national debt and deficits, but welcomed them as a way to reduce America as a world power.

When the U.S. credit rating was reduced for the first time in our history I thought people would be concerned. They weren’t. How many saw the looming financial crisis, captured perfectly in the automatic budget cuts of the sequestration mandate?
For years I have warned about the debasement of our educational system and no one seemed to care. While China turns out hundreds of engineering graduates there has been a diminishing, inadequate stream here in the U.S. Other nation’s children have been scoring higher on tests than our own for years and there was neither notice, nor outcry.
And for four years under Obama, while the unemployment rate soared, job creation hit new lows, the economy fell to an anemic rate of recovery, food stamp use increased, household income fell, gas prices rose, and general poverty rates increased, none of this seemed to matter as the President continued to repeat and repeat the tired, empty rhetoric of his 2008 campaign.
Throughout his term, the number of federal regulations continued to climb, adding 11,327 pages; a 7.4 percent increase from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2011. You don’t solve economic problems by strangling small, medium and large business and industry in America, but it didn’t register with those who voted for him on November 6th.
Republicans, conservatives, and many independent voters assumed these issues would resonate with a majority of the electorate, but they did not. They were ignored. In California, among the most heavily taxed citizens in the nation, they approved more taxes.
The question must be asked whether the Obama voters were just not smart enough to pay attention to the past four years or not smart enough to understand what he was doing?
The assumption was that a majority of Americans would reject four years of failure and, it must be said, four years of lies.
Our assumptions were wrong.
© Alan Caruba, 2012


Fred said...

Well written. I agree that obama voters collective IQ is inside a square root sign, and more importantly their love of handouts, sitting on couches, and taking drugs is factorial.

The problem is, that they breed like rabbits.

Max said...

As always, prescient and relevant. One note; according to the book China Inc. which is standard fare for MBA programs these days, China is producing about 100,000 engineers of various flavors each year! That's scary by comparison to our paltry rate. By the way, many of their engineers are coming from great US schools! How's that for irony! Keep charging. Max

Unknown said...

Too many Americans want freebies at the expense of those who work and the result is many of those getting government handouts don't want jobs and they could care less about the jobless rate. Many of those who do work wouldn't accept the fact Obama is a failure and, worse yet, many wouldn't listen to the arguments against him.Many, many black people voted because of the color of his skin. Add to that the mainstream media that did everything possible to get him re-elected, and here we have the Liar in Chief for another four years.
He is like genital herpes. We can't get rid of him.

Unknown said...

And they get paid by the government to breed more bunnies!

Lime Lite said...

I think that those who voted for Obama just don't care about the economy - they think government is there to provide for them. If they don't have, the government will give them. They don't understand that what is given has to come from somewhere - or perhaps they think that's what Republicans are there for, to provide for them as they do care about all this difficult stuff? Wouldn't it be wonderful if the 58 million who voted for Romney just sat back and also didn't care? I watched Bill O'Reilly last night and Dennis Miller said exactly that. The poor idiot earning $41 000 a year and doing the right thing by paying his taxes can earn just as much, if not more, by going onto welfare, so why should he do the right thing? Maybe, just maybe, that would be the wake-up call Americans need. Obama supporters just don't care. The numbers are too big for them to understand.

TexasFred said...

Can we use a machete to lance this *boil*??

Brody said...


I have to agree with you.

I thought that Mitt Romney was too timid from the start but I also feared that if he really hit hard at Obama, the MSM would do everything to protect Obama and then they would attack Romney.

From my observation, some well educated individuals believe that the US white male is responsible for all the hatred and evil in the world. These well educated individuals believe that the America white male owes the world for our sins and for the sins of prior generations and they believe that President Obama is correct in make us pay for our evil ways. These individuals also agree that we must atone for Global Warming, for using more than our share of energy, and for having too much wealth.


Mistysueblue said...

Unfortunately, we've hit the tipping point and it is now behind us. We have too many people who are receiving government checks and other benefits who have neither the education nor experience to understand that, overall, these programs are bad for the country.

The people have discovered that they can vote themselves bread and circuses. What's the inevitable result?

Dee Rohe said...

Yes, we are shocked and in mourning. In retrospect, I see that most of the Obama voters seem to not be able to see the issues. They want handouts, they think he is their saviour. I personally know people like this, and no amount of talking with them has resulted in them being able to change. One is disabled, on disability, with two small children to support-perhaps his wife is working. I do know that he is a person that used cocaine for awhile. He claims to be a spiritual shaman, fighting with evil spirits.. but it appears to me that the evil spirits have won him over. His emails are full of vicious four letter language and sad to say, it looks to me that this is typical of some of the liberals - not all of course. Quite a few Obama voters speak beautiful 'airy fairy', New Age pronouncements of 'ascension; transformation of our DNA, declaring that Obama is a Golden Light worker come on a special mission for humanity, directed by entities just up there in space ships! They get all this through 'channeling.' No, I'm not kidding.
Others seem to be over-educated lawyers, unionized firefighters, etc. And they swallow the hype not being able to look deeper into what's really happening. Too busy, perhaps. These above types I'm talking about are personally known by me, but resemble across-the-board descriptions I've been seeing in the 'net. One of the lawyers seems to be a closet lesbian. There are even some members of my family who have adopted mixed race children (bless them) and I suppose they identify with Obama's color. One has lost his job, but still spouts derisive rhetoric. I could go on, but I need to go to some more positive thoughts for awhile at this point. Thanks for all you do, Alan!

Alan Caruba said...

Thanks for all your input. This commentary has evoked quite a few excellent comments.

Harry Dale Huffman said...

It is obviously not a question of intelligence, per se, but of emotional attachment, even to the point of being "in love" (or, if you prefer, in ideological, more or less religious, thrall). The Presidential election is a beauty contest, first, last and always, and the President is primarily a celebrity, a popular king, whose looks and manners fit the mood of those who elect him. The election of one as bad as Obama, is enough to make me want to see the office of President done away with entirely, because after 40 years and 11 heartfelt votes on my part, I am tired of watching other peoples' pathetic, childish lusts win the day over principled, well-grounded judgment of character and ability -- and because power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely, and giving ultimate executive power to one who is basically just another g--d--- king has always struck me as utterly and irretrievably stupid. And if you would say the President does not have such ultimate power, then why the blue bloody h--- do the other powers that be allow Obama to appoint "czars" and rule by "executive order"? Stupid idiots, all, I say. There, that is my rant for the foreseeable future -- nobody wants to hear that, I know. (And by the way, Congress does not work now, and the Supreme Court is a perverse mockery of justice. It is all too much like a mafia organization, especially on the insane Left, a criminal syndicate that considers itself untouchable.)

Saltines Random Thinking said...


I am sure you have seen by now, but Harry Reid has said he will raise the debt ceiling by 2.4 Trillion if needed. Oh well......gonna be a tough ride.

Anonymous said...

Well obviously that means nowadays 52% of Americans want failure and lies.


Unknown said...

Hmmmm Harry,
You actually have some good ideas and insight. Do you have an alternative to having a president? The three branches of government sure seemed like a good idea and a good way to govern but it now seems to be a complete mess to me. Where did it go wrong and how can we fix it?

I am beginning to believe that the Communists have infiltrated every part of the federal government as well as the military and the CIA. You can see this in today's statements regarding the Nov. 1 attempt by Iran to shoot down our drone and the delay of the announcement until after the election.

As for Harry Reid, he is one of the biggest problems in government and I find it hard to believe he has attained a position of such power. I felt the same about Nancy Pelosi, a person who should be no more than a joke. We need to go back to 1776 and start again from scratch.

Guy in Ohio said...

The fact of the matter is that THREE MILLION Republicans STAYED HOME. That is unforgivable in my opinion, but there has to be a reason for it. When you can't get your base out to vote in an election THIS CRITICAL, you have a serious problem. At this point, I can't begin to guess what people were thinking. I have twenty odd theories, but it could be any one, or all, of them. I'm sure someone will eventually take a poll then maybe we'll gain some insight into why they didn't vote, but one thing is certain. Until we do something to re-energize our base, we aren't going to win another election ...

Or, maybe there was there fraud on a scale we've never seen before? It's hard to say ...

Ugh ...

Ron Albertson said...

When will the checks start to bounce?

Eddy Burke said...

MIMs are the cause of Obama's: Minorities identifying themselves as Minorities. MIMs.
Romney does not address minorities. He addresses people as adult AMERICANS. That just doesn't work anymore. Especially the Hispanics are problematic here. They felt "slighted"? Not enough attention to the immigration issue? I can't believe their arrogance... They are americans first, and should be rejecting illegal immigration whether it comes from chinese or russians or martians or mexicans.
Shame on mostly Catholic Latinos to vote in such enormous numbers for Obama. When will the pampering stop??

Ronbo said...

I think one important outcome of the election of 2012 is the growing perception among Republicans is that the main reason for our defeat was due to the fact we ran against Santa Claus.

In short, there is no way Republican "out reach" to minorities can be successful UNLESS we outbid the Democrats in freebies from the taxpayers, which is an impossible task for the party of Lincoln.

What can we do?

1. Start a Second U.S. Civil War as rebels. We could make a mass patriot movement into the Heartland of states like Texas, form a new Republic and
attack the federal government.

2. Head for the hills and form "Galt's Gulch Communities" and wait out the storm.

3. Leave the country for Australia's Outback and somehow create a new USA in the desert sands.

4. Support and vote for every crackpot socialist idea suggested by the Obama Regime in the firm knowledge that the country will soon fall into a Super Depression - then fall to pieces like the old Soviet Union.

5. Commit mass suicide next on July 4, 2013.