Election Prediction Pandemonium

By Alan Caruba

I find it odd that many political pundits have already concluded that the Democrats will sweep into further power in Congress and that Hillary Clinton will become the first woman President of the United States.

I seem to recall the pundits saying that Howard Dean, a former Democrat candidate, was raising so much money and had such momentum that nothing could stop him. A rather lackluster John Kerry did that and then went on, despite being savaged during the campaign, to come astonishingly close to unseating George W. Bush.

What all this ponderous predicting is about is (1) the mainstream media’s continuing love affair with the Democrat Party and any socialist program it proposes and wants to fund with taxpayer money, and (2) the desperate need to write something for the daily deadline, be it a newspaper or broadcast.

There are, of course, signs of Republican meltdown. Several GOP members of Congress have announced they will not run for re-election and, most importantly, the GOP coffers are nothing compared to the Democrat National Committee. Money being the mother’s milk of politics, a lot of GOP donors are, well, not donating.

Just as a week can be a very long time during a political campaign, the several months that lay ahead for both parties are subject to the unexpected. I will boldly predict that there will be no terrorist attacks on the U.S. homeland because, as Aaron Klein points out in his new book, Schmoozing with Terrorists, “Overwhelmingly they told me they hope Americans sweep the Democrats into power in part because of the party’s position on withdrawing from Iraq, a move, as they see it, that ensured victory for the worldwide Islamic resistance.”

I am pretty sure Democrats do not want it widely known that among their greatest fans these days are Islamic terrorists from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus to Beirut, and in Gaza. The very notion that one of the Democrat candidates is named Barack Hussein Obama is nothing less than astonishing.

The tolerance of Americans is nothing short of amazing. Not only is Senator Obama sporting a Muslim name, he is Black and doing fairly well against the Clinton juggernaut. That is not likely to last, however, has he has shown a degree of political ineptness that gives one pause.

The pundits all agree that Hillary will be the next President, but here again one should take care to be advised by people who have been notoriously wrong in the past and are likely to be again in 2008. Whoever runs against her as the Republican candidate is going to be running television ads that will give people reason to worry—a lot—about Queen Hillary.

The fitful occupation of Iraq is going to be the single dominating issue and the news out of Iraq these days is not that bad. U.S. casualties are down. There are fewer suicide bombings. What passes for a government there is making some progress. The Kurds are secure in their enclave. The British are reducing their presence in Basra and southern Iraq. The “surge” appears to have been a genuine success and there is further encouraging news from U.S. military activities.

None of this bodes well for Democrat candidates. They need failure in Iraq. They need to pander to the desire of some Americans to leave the mess of occupation. They are dependent on the short memory span of Americans who recoiled in shock on September 11, 2001 from the reality of an attack on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon.

Indeed, all around the world right now the terrorists seem to be on vacation. Is there a consensus among them that all they have to do is wait for a woman to occupy the Oval Office? Given their contempt for women, not to mention their oppression of women’s rights (and human rights in general), does anyone think that a Hillary presidency would not trigger their worst instincts?

The Iowa and New Hampshire primaries are weeks away. Given the Super Primary when many States vote, their impact may be less than anticipated or predicted.

Politics is a blood sport in America. 2008 is going to be ugly. And unpredictable.